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02/12/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Kings will try to end a rough road trip on a positive note when they visit the rival Dallas Stars for today's Pacific Division battle at American Airlines Center.
The Kings are 1-3-1 so far on a six-game swing and they've managed just six total goals during the trip. The most recent result was a 2-1 overtime loss Saturday against the New York Islanders. Mark Streit scored just 96 seconds into the extra session to give the hosts the extra point and the OT setback dropped Los Angeles to 11-8-7 as the guest this season.
Los Angeles enters today three points behind the San Jose for first place in the Pacific and the Sharks have four games in hand over the Kings. LA is also the seventh seed in the West and is two points behind Chicago and just one ahead of Phoenix.
Andrei Loktionov lit the lamp in regulation for the Kings on Saturday, while Jonathan Quick made 23 saves. On the game-winner, Streit skated down the middle of the ice and eluded Milan Jurcina in the high slot before snapping his backhander past Quick.
"It's frustrating not getting the win, but at the same time getting one point can be so critical, especially down the stretch," Kings center Mike Richards said.
The Kings played Saturday without forward Jarret Stoll, who suffered a lower- body injury in LA's previous game against Florida. He has been placed on injured reserve and there is no timetable for his return.
After today's tilt, the Kings will return home for a pair of games against Phoenix and Calgary. LA will then close February by playing four out of five games on the road.
The Stars are seeded 11th in the West and are three in back of Phoenix for the last playoff spot in the conference. Dallas has lost two of three and three of its last five and was dealt a 3-2 shootout loss Friday night in Buffalo.
Dallas grabbed a 2-0 lead early in the third period against the Sabres, but Derek Roy and Thomas Vanek both scored for the home team to send the game to overtime. Nathan Gerbe would eventually end the contest when he scored for Buffalo in the fifth round of the shootout.
Michael Ryder and Tomas Vincour each had a goal for the Stars, while Kari Lehtonen made 30 stops in the loss.
"I think we played a pretty good game overall," said Ryder. "I think we maybe sat back a little too much in the third and gave them the momentum. It was a big point for us, but it would have been nice to get two."
Dallas defenseman Sheldon Souray missed Friday's game with a foot injury and is considered day-to-day.
Today's contest marks the sixth and final scheduled meeting between the Kings and Stars this season. LA won the first two encounters, but Dallas has since won three in a row and posted two of those victories after regulation. The Kings have won seven of nine and nine of their last 12 tests in Big D and Dallas is 15-10-2 as the host this season.
<< Isles, Panthers clash at the Coliseum
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The first-place Florida Panthers will try to post their
first three-game winning streak since early December when they visit the New
York Islanders for today's clash at Nassau Coliseum.
Florida, which leads Washington by t
<< U.S. finishes off Davis Cup sweep of host Swiss
Fribourg, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The United States had already
clinched a victory over host Switzerland in their best-of-five Davis Cup tie
before capping off the weekend on Sunday with two more singles wins in a 5-0
sweep i
<< Lakers finish Grammy Road Trip in Toronto
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With a bad case of Linsanity safely in the rearview mirror
the Los Angeles Lakers will get back to business and finish their annual
Grammy Road Trip north of the border against the Toronto Raptors.
The Lakers served as not
<< Jazz start tough stretch in Memphis
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Memphis continues a five-game homestand Sunday when it
welcomes the struggling Utah Jazz to FedEx Forum.
The Grizzlies improved to 2-1 on the residency Friday when Rudy Gay scored 21
points as Memphis defeated the Indiana
Sharks begin epic trek in St. Louis >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The first-place San Jose Sharks will make the first stop on
their longest road trip of the season tonight, as they visit the St. Louis
Blues in a Western Conference showdown at Scottrade Center.
The Sharks lead the Pacific
Red Wings shoot for NHL home record vs. Flyers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Red Wings will try to tie the NHL record for
consecutive home wins when they shoot for their 20th straight victory at Joe
Louis Arena tonight against the Philadelphia Flyers.
It's fitting that the Red Wings wil
Last-place Novara stuns Inter at San Siro >>
Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Unfortunately for last-place Novara, it does
not play Inter Milan again this season.
Andrea Caracciolo scored in the 56th minute Sunday and Novara won for just the
third time in Serie A this season - and the
Host Czechs whip Italians 4-1 in Davis Cup >>
Ostrava, Czech Republic (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The host Czech Republic advanced
to the Davis Cup quarterfinals with an easy 4-1 victory over Italy this week.
The Czechs had already clinched the best-of-five tie with a doubles victory in
Ostra
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Michael Vick is back, Brett Favre isn't and the NFC East remains the best division in the NFC, maybe in all of football.
As players start to gather for the start of another season, some things change and some stay the same in the world of the NFL.
The NFC East has been the dominant division in the National Conference for a while, despite limited playoff success, save for the New York Giants surprise Super Bowl win two seasons ago.
Hell, there's a generation of kids in Texas who have never seen the Cowboys win a playoff game (last win was in 1996).
But collectively, the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins (well, maybe not so much the Redskins) are as good as a division gets in an NFC conference that has struggled to stay competitive with the AFC side.
Sports bettors have both acknowledged the NFC East's dominance, as one glance at the NFL future odds menu will show.
Looking over the NFL betting odds at online sports book MySportsbook.com we see the top three teams listed to win the NFC Championship are all from the NFC East:
Dallas Cowboys - 7 - 1
Philadelphia Eagles - 13 - 2
New York Giants - 9 - 2
Slotting in behind these three are two teams from the NFC North: the Minnesota Vikings (15-2) and the Chicago Bears (10-1).
Again, despite the lack of recent playoff success, the Dallas Cowboys are popular with the sports betting community, as they hold 14% of all the money wagered on who will win the NFC Championship.
So far, the New York Giants are the bettors' favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl, as they have 24% of the overall NFC Championship betting volume.
And what about the Philadelphia Eagles? For the most part, the Eagles had a very productive offseason, the kind that could bring them back to the top.
They had a good draft adding the likes of WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy.
Unfortunately, the team received a blow when long-time defensive coordinator Jim Johnson passed away on Tuesday.
But this team will make a real run at the division title this year. Going into the regular season, Philly is listed at +240 to win the division.
Last season the Eagles were 9-6-1 SU and 10-6 ATS.
Teams from the NFC East will play teams from the AFC West in the regular season and the Eagles haven't really been a good bet in the last 20 games against the likes of San Diego, Oakland, K.C. and Denver, only going 8-12 ATS.
Two seasons removed from that Super Bowl title, the New York Giants see themselves listed as the odds-on favorite in NFC East championship futures at +162.
Plaxico Burress is gone and with him all the bad publicity surrounding the gun in the sweatpants incident, but can they replace him in the offense?
Last season the Giants were a very reliable bet going 12-4 ATS.
In the Giants' last 20 games against fellow teams from the NFC East; they are 13-7 ATS.
Dallas is listed at +240 to win the division.
Dallas went 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS last season and with the amount of talent the Cowboys have, a similar performance won't do.
The Cowboys have been atrocious against divisional rivals, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20.
The Washington Redskins are longshots to win the division at +550.
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